The financial crisis has brought about dramatic changes in the global economic landscape. However, what we have overlooked is that the global energy landscape has also undergone tremendous changes. The “energy independence†strategy and the large-scale development of unconventional oil and gas make the North American region emerge as a global energy sector that can compete with the Middle East. The world’s energy, economic, and geopolitical landscape is undergoing profound changes, and this will bring us unexpected results. The challenge.
The United States "energy independence"
Significant progress in strategy At present, the United States has completely reversed the decline in energy self-sufficiency. Over the past six years or so, the United States’ energy self-sufficiency rate has gradually increased, and the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that in 2035, the United States’ energy self-sufficiency rate will reach 87%.
With the exploitation of offshore oil and gas fields, the improvement of energy efficiency and the development of new energy sources, the over-reliance on petroleum in the United States has gradually declined. According to the EIA data, the US foreign oil dependence rate in 2010 was 49.2%, which fell below 50% for the first time since 1997; it is expected to further decline to 44.9% in 2011. Among these, the successful development of unconventional oil and gas, represented by shale gas ("shale gas **"), was an important breakthrough in the inflection point of US oil dependence. At present, shale gas production in the United States is already equivalent to 23% of its total natural gas production, and the United States has surpassed Russia as the world's largest natural gas resource and production country, basically achieving self-sufficiency.
In recent years, the United States’ energy use efficiency has continued to increase. Coupled with the sluggish consumption caused by the economic downturn, the US’s domestic oil demand has decreased from 940 million tons in 2005 to 850 million tons in 2010, a drop of 9.5%, which is the lowest in 10 years. Level. At the same time, according to the EIA "2012 Energy Outlook" forecast, from 2010 to 2035, the average American energy consumption will decline at an average annual rate of 0.5%.
The United States is gradually ridding itself of its oil dependence on the Middle East. In recent years, the US oil supply has shown a trend of shrinking toward the local and surrounding areas. The offshore oil production in the Gulf of Mexico has increased, the import of oil from the Americas has increased, and the dependence on Middle East oil has gradually been reduced. In 2010, US imports of crude oil from the Middle East accounted for only 14.9% of the total import volume, which was 12.9 percentage points lower than the highest level in 1977; meanwhile, crude oil imported from the Americas increased significantly from 10.7% in 1977 to 71.1% in 2010, making it Has become the "oil depot" in the U.S. backyard.
Evolution of Energy Patterns Reshaping the Global Strategic Pattern The United States’ “energy independence†not only creates a strong supply shock to the U.S. economy, but also changes the world energy landscape and even affects the global strategic layout.
First, the U.S. economy will accelerate its recovery due to its energy cost advantage. Since the financial crisis, under the framework of the "re-industrialization" strategy proposed by the Obama administration, "export doubling plan", "manufacturing promotion bill", "reinvigoration of the US manufacturing policy framework" and other packages have highlighted "made in the United States". Strategic steering profile. The U.S. manufacturing industry is showing signs of long-term structural improvement, and it is beginning to enter a rising period. The decline in energy prices brought about by the “shale gas†will significantly reduce manufacturing costs, thus promoting the accelerated recovery and manufacturing of the U.S. real economy. The revival.
The trade deficit has been drastically reduced to attract international capital backflow. From 2000 to 2010, the US oil and gas trade deficit totaled as high as 2.15 trillion U.S. dollars. Among them, the annual deficit of crude oil trade increased from 89.41 billion US dollars to 258.74 billion US dollars, an increase of nearly 2 times; natural gas trade deficit gradually fell after 2005, from 31.82 billion US dollars in 2005 back to 12.48 billion US dollars in 2010. Obviously, as the US's dependence on foreign energy sources decreases, it will effectively improve current account balances, thereby supporting the dollar into a strong cycle, and further triggering the return of global capital from emerging economies to the United States.
Second, the global energy landscape is undergoing dramatic changes.
With the rise of the energy axis in the western hemisphere, the strategic position of energy in the Middle East will decline. In the global primary energy consumption, oil still occupies a large proportion, but under the influence of the US “energy independence†strategy, the global energy production map dominated by the Middle East is changing, and a new energy axis has quietly emerged in the western hemisphere and may Change the global energy distribution map. At present, besides the soaring production of shale gas in the United States, the potential of oil and gas resources in Canada's oil sands, the Gulf of Mexico, and Brazil's deep sea is huge. North America is becoming a rising plate in the world's energy supply map and will weaken the energy strategy in the Middle East to some extent. Status and a profound influence on geopolitics and the global economic landscape.
The developing countries represented by China and India will become the main force of energy consumption in the world, especially in the Middle East. With the rapid rise of emerging Asian economies, the world’s major energy needs are shifting eastwards. As marked by Japan’s imports from the Middle East over Europe in the 1990s, East Asia and South Asia have experienced rapid and sustained growth in their oil consumption and imports. From 2000 to 2010, the annual growth rate of the total consumption of basic energy (including oil, natural gas, coal, hydropower, and nuclear power, not included in new energy) in the world was 2.67%, of which, in North America, Europe, and the CIS region, The average growth rate is only 0.20%, while the Asia-Pacific average annual growth rate is 6.34%. The share of China and India in the world’s energy consumption increased from 9.02% and 3.44% in 2000 to 20.82% and 4.38% in 2010 respectively.
As the U.S. energy demand gradually returns to North America, Europe will also rely more on Russia, Central Asia, and North Africa. The Middle East will become Asia Pacific's Middle East in a larger sense. Therefore, in the future, the core contradiction of oil will gradually shift from the conflict of interests between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to supply and demand stability between emerging economies and OPEC. The Asian Energy Pricing Center It will also be initially formed to reverse the "Asian premium" inequality in the global oil trading system.
Third, the United States will accelerate the strategic shift to the east and the global strategic layout will undergo major adjustments.
The U.S. global energy strategy has always had the dual functions of "inside security" and "outside hegemony", mainly reflected in the maintenance of the petroleum dollar hegemony system, control of energy sources and energy channels, realization of international oil strategy and geopolitical Close integration of strategy, international oil strategy, and the search for hegemony. From this perspective, although "energy independence" has reduced the US's reliance on Middle East oil imports, it does not mean that the United States will give up its strategic control over the Middle East. On the contrary, it will make the US more hawkish on its Middle East policy and accelerate its strategic move to the United States. The construction of the "Pacific New Order" creates conditions and space.
Perhaps, behind the changes in the world economic landscape today, it is the forces of change in the energy landscape that are at work.
The United States "energy independence"
Significant progress in strategy At present, the United States has completely reversed the decline in energy self-sufficiency. Over the past six years or so, the United States’ energy self-sufficiency rate has gradually increased, and the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that in 2035, the United States’ energy self-sufficiency rate will reach 87%.
With the exploitation of offshore oil and gas fields, the improvement of energy efficiency and the development of new energy sources, the over-reliance on petroleum in the United States has gradually declined. According to the EIA data, the US foreign oil dependence rate in 2010 was 49.2%, which fell below 50% for the first time since 1997; it is expected to further decline to 44.9% in 2011. Among these, the successful development of unconventional oil and gas, represented by shale gas ("shale gas **"), was an important breakthrough in the inflection point of US oil dependence. At present, shale gas production in the United States is already equivalent to 23% of its total natural gas production, and the United States has surpassed Russia as the world's largest natural gas resource and production country, basically achieving self-sufficiency.
In recent years, the United States’ energy use efficiency has continued to increase. Coupled with the sluggish consumption caused by the economic downturn, the US’s domestic oil demand has decreased from 940 million tons in 2005 to 850 million tons in 2010, a drop of 9.5%, which is the lowest in 10 years. Level. At the same time, according to the EIA "2012 Energy Outlook" forecast, from 2010 to 2035, the average American energy consumption will decline at an average annual rate of 0.5%.
The United States is gradually ridding itself of its oil dependence on the Middle East. In recent years, the US oil supply has shown a trend of shrinking toward the local and surrounding areas. The offshore oil production in the Gulf of Mexico has increased, the import of oil from the Americas has increased, and the dependence on Middle East oil has gradually been reduced. In 2010, US imports of crude oil from the Middle East accounted for only 14.9% of the total import volume, which was 12.9 percentage points lower than the highest level in 1977; meanwhile, crude oil imported from the Americas increased significantly from 10.7% in 1977 to 71.1% in 2010, making it Has become the "oil depot" in the U.S. backyard.
Evolution of Energy Patterns Reshaping the Global Strategic Pattern The United States’ “energy independence†not only creates a strong supply shock to the U.S. economy, but also changes the world energy landscape and even affects the global strategic layout.
First, the U.S. economy will accelerate its recovery due to its energy cost advantage. Since the financial crisis, under the framework of the "re-industrialization" strategy proposed by the Obama administration, "export doubling plan", "manufacturing promotion bill", "reinvigoration of the US manufacturing policy framework" and other packages have highlighted "made in the United States". Strategic steering profile. The U.S. manufacturing industry is showing signs of long-term structural improvement, and it is beginning to enter a rising period. The decline in energy prices brought about by the “shale gas†will significantly reduce manufacturing costs, thus promoting the accelerated recovery and manufacturing of the U.S. real economy. The revival.
The trade deficit has been drastically reduced to attract international capital backflow. From 2000 to 2010, the US oil and gas trade deficit totaled as high as 2.15 trillion U.S. dollars. Among them, the annual deficit of crude oil trade increased from 89.41 billion US dollars to 258.74 billion US dollars, an increase of nearly 2 times; natural gas trade deficit gradually fell after 2005, from 31.82 billion US dollars in 2005 back to 12.48 billion US dollars in 2010. Obviously, as the US's dependence on foreign energy sources decreases, it will effectively improve current account balances, thereby supporting the dollar into a strong cycle, and further triggering the return of global capital from emerging economies to the United States.
Second, the global energy landscape is undergoing dramatic changes.
With the rise of the energy axis in the western hemisphere, the strategic position of energy in the Middle East will decline. In the global primary energy consumption, oil still occupies a large proportion, but under the influence of the US “energy independence†strategy, the global energy production map dominated by the Middle East is changing, and a new energy axis has quietly emerged in the western hemisphere and may Change the global energy distribution map. At present, besides the soaring production of shale gas in the United States, the potential of oil and gas resources in Canada's oil sands, the Gulf of Mexico, and Brazil's deep sea is huge. North America is becoming a rising plate in the world's energy supply map and will weaken the energy strategy in the Middle East to some extent. Status and a profound influence on geopolitics and the global economic landscape.
The developing countries represented by China and India will become the main force of energy consumption in the world, especially in the Middle East. With the rapid rise of emerging Asian economies, the world’s major energy needs are shifting eastwards. As marked by Japan’s imports from the Middle East over Europe in the 1990s, East Asia and South Asia have experienced rapid and sustained growth in their oil consumption and imports. From 2000 to 2010, the annual growth rate of the total consumption of basic energy (including oil, natural gas, coal, hydropower, and nuclear power, not included in new energy) in the world was 2.67%, of which, in North America, Europe, and the CIS region, The average growth rate is only 0.20%, while the Asia-Pacific average annual growth rate is 6.34%. The share of China and India in the world’s energy consumption increased from 9.02% and 3.44% in 2000 to 20.82% and 4.38% in 2010 respectively.
As the U.S. energy demand gradually returns to North America, Europe will also rely more on Russia, Central Asia, and North Africa. The Middle East will become Asia Pacific's Middle East in a larger sense. Therefore, in the future, the core contradiction of oil will gradually shift from the conflict of interests between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to supply and demand stability between emerging economies and OPEC. The Asian Energy Pricing Center It will also be initially formed to reverse the "Asian premium" inequality in the global oil trading system.
Third, the United States will accelerate the strategic shift to the east and the global strategic layout will undergo major adjustments.
The U.S. global energy strategy has always had the dual functions of "inside security" and "outside hegemony", mainly reflected in the maintenance of the petroleum dollar hegemony system, control of energy sources and energy channels, realization of international oil strategy and geopolitical Close integration of strategy, international oil strategy, and the search for hegemony. From this perspective, although "energy independence" has reduced the US's reliance on Middle East oil imports, it does not mean that the United States will give up its strategic control over the Middle East. On the contrary, it will make the US more hawkish on its Middle East policy and accelerate its strategic move to the United States. The construction of the "Pacific New Order" creates conditions and space.
Perhaps, behind the changes in the world economic landscape today, it is the forces of change in the energy landscape that are at work.
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