Summary Summary: As of Thursday's close, this week's nickel was limited by last Thursday, and most of the week was trading at $14,000/ton. The low price attracts some nickel plate traders to bargain-hunt, but most of them are ultra-short-term merchants. The overall activity of Shanghai Nickel City is not high. Announced in important data sets next week...
Summary : As of Thursday's close, this week's nickel was limited by last Thursday, and most of the week was trading below $14,000/ton. The low price attracts some nickel plate traders to bargain-hunt, but most of them are ultra-short-term merchants. The overall activity of Shanghai Nickel City is not high. The important data will be released next week, and it is expected that Lun Nickel will trade at US$1.32-1.42 million/ton. I. Analysis and prediction of the trend of nickel
1. Review of the trend of nickel
This week, the price of the nickel-plated nickel was reported at $13,838/ton, which was $13,703/ton from last Thursday. From Friday to Thursday, Lun Nickel was in a sideways volatility. It rebounded to $14,100/ton last Friday, and most of the time it fluctuated below $14,000/ton. Although nickel has fluctuated this week, it has risen and fallen in a single day: it rose 383 US dollars/ton last Friday, and fell 416 US dollars/ton on Monday. It rose 230 US dollars/ton on Tuesday and 270 US dollars/ton on Wednesday. It rose by $197/ton on Thursday. It rose the day before, but fell on the day after, and the increase and decrease were large, indicating that the funds are different here.
This week LME nickel stocks increased by 2,076 tons to a high of 187,488 tons. The cancellation of warehouse receipts was first increased and then decreased. It was 27,444 tons on Monday, and increased to 31,230 tons on Tuesday. It was reduced to 29,280 tons and 28,368 tons on Wednesday and Thursday.
The theme of the metal market news this week is the Chinese central bank and the Federal Reserve to appease the market. China's interbank interest rates rose sharply, causing market panic, the stock market plummeted, the central bank had to come forward to appease the market on Tuesday, alleviating short-term interbank liquidity, but the tone of the medium-term tightening has been set. Concerned about the Fed's adjustment of the QE scale, the US bond market and the stock market all showed a sell-off, and many Fed officials issued a moderate speech. Although the public statements of the Central Bank of China provided the following support for the metal market, the market could not find clues to the improvement of supply and demand from various types of information, and the metal price lacked the momentum to continue to rise.
2. Lun nickel trend forecast
Next week is the first week of July, and important economic data is getting together. It is expected that the metal price trend will mainly focus on two clues. First, the metal terminal demand information implied by China's manufacturing data. Second, the US economic data, especially the employment data implied by the Fed to adjust QE information.
China's economic data will not be significantly improved in June, and the release of biased information may be greater. In the United States, the quality of data and the direction of data impact are currently difficult to judge. If the data is very good, it will trigger speculation that the Fed will adjust QE in September. It is obviously unfavorable for metal prices. If the data is far worse than expected, it will cause unfavorable economic prospects. It is still unfavorable; in line with expectations or slight gap, the Fed withdraws. Loose concerns will ease, and metal prices are slightly better. Comprehensive considerations, although next week, Lun Nickel may be driven by the stock market, the intraday high, but the overall upward momentum is limited, is expected to trade at 13,200-14,200 US dollars / ton.
Second, the domestic nickel market
1. Electrolytic nickel market
On Friday, the spot nickel price in the Shanghai market rose by about RMB 300/ton from last Friday, and the increase was limited. Driven by the surge in nickel on Friday, Jinchuan Nickel in Shanghai market rose about 800 yuan/ton to 9.78-9.80 million yuan/ton on Monday, and Russian nickel rose to 9.69-9.71 million yuan/ton. On Tuesday, spot nickel price in Shanghai market fell more than 1 Thousand yuan / ton; spot nickel prices rebounded about 700 on Wednesday; nickel prices on Thursday and Friday were basically flat.
Nickel prices remain below 100,000 yuan / ton, attracting some bargain-hunting traders to buy goods, but the purchase volume is generally small, and most of them are ultra-short-line businesses. Due to the limited space for nickel price fluctuations, the profitability of spot operations is difficult; and the downstream gradually shifts into the off-season of production, the purchase of raw materials is not large, and the overall activity of the spot nickel market is not high.
2. Domestic ferronickel market
This week, the price of ferronickel continued to be weak and stable. The downstream buyers were affected by the recent sharp decline in the market. The procurement was limited, most of them were to maintain production, and the tender price of high-nickel iron in steel mills was also introduced in July. Among them, Taigang's bidding purchase price is 905 yuan/nickel, Baosteel's bidding purchase price is 905 yuan/nickel, and the latest purchase bid price of Qingshan Group's high-nickel iron is 930 yuan/nickel (both to the factory tax-included price). The price of the new round is weaker than last month. The price is slightly lower than the market expectation, but it is also expected in the current economic form. Such a depressed market is very helpless. It is understood that the current operating rate of the manufacturers is still declining. Only a small number of large-scale factories are still producing less. Under the influence of the overall economic recovery, the late stage is not ruled out. The market will continue to fall, and the market turnover is very light.
3. Domestic nickel ore market
Nickel ore prices have been stable this week, but the nickel-ship shipping costs have risen slightly in recent days, which has made the market situation of the downturn even worse. In addition, with the new round of bidding purchase prices of steel mills, some factory orders have been temporarily suspended, nickel The start of the ironworks continued to decline, and the demand for raw materials was limited. Under the dual pressures of domestic miners at high-priced in-going costs and domestic low-cost transactions, the overall situation of the nickel ore market remained sluggish and pessimism doubled. The market is dead. When the market improves, it depends on many factors. Next week, nickel ore will still be based on smooth operation.
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