Abstract "Technology brings us closer to each other, but it makes us unable to understand each other's truth. Just as the vivid interpretation of Shakespeare's famous tragedy Julius Caesar: the reason why people explain everything according to their own meaning, but actually The purpose of these things is completely...
“Technology has brought us closer to each other, but it has made us unable to understand each other's truth. Just as the vivid interpretation of Shakespeare's famous tragedy Julius Caesar: the reason why people explain everything according to their own meaning, but actually The purpose of the thing itself is completely opposite." This is a paragraph in the speech of the first International Machine Tool Information Conference (IMTIC2015), the chairman of the China Machine Tool Industry Association, Mr. Wang Xu, who explained it by means of metaphor. Organize such a globally influential machine tool manufacturing industry organization, the significance of the world's major machine tool manufacturing industry and market trends and trends collectively released. Mr. Chen Huiren, executive vice president and secretary general of the China Machine Tool & Tool Industry Association, hosted by the conference, introduced the event. He said: "The International Machine Tool Information Conference (IMTIC2015) is one of the important theme activities newly launched by the organizers at this exhibition (CIMT2015). The purpose is to strengthen the latest industrial policy and industry of CIMT in the machine tool manufacturing industry. The functions of development and market information exchange services. For related reports, please refer to the previous issue of this newspaper.
A close reading of the data on the press conference is a bit of a hint.
US: Machine tool exports to China are twice as high as four years ago
According to Douglas Wood, president of the American Manufacturing Technology Association, China is the largest machine tool in the United States, and the largest machine tool import from the United States. The latest data shows that US exports to China are almost twice the amount of exports to Mexico (ranked second) and continue to grow. The size of US exports to China is twice that of four years ago. In other words, if the United States exports to North American trading partners Mexico and Canada, it will still be less than the amount of exports to China. Other high-growth emerging markets in US machine tool export destinations, such as India and Brazil, are far behind China and even several countries in North America.
Germany: Germany's machine tool industry exports rank first in the world
German machine tools are sold all over the world, including China. In 2014, 24% of the machine tools imported from China came from Germany. For a long time, China has been a very important export market for German manufacturers. In particular, the export volume to China has increased rapidly in recent years, from 2008 to 2012, with an increase of more than 200% to 2.6 billion euros. In 2013, China's industrial sector suffered severe cyclical difficulties. Machine consumption and imports fell, and Germany was affected. However, in 2014, exports once again rose to 2.3 billion euros. The products sold include cutting-edge technology products such as machining centers, grinding machines, laser processing machines, and functional components.
German counterparts are very optimistic about the future Chinese market. According to them, international economic authorities (including the Oxford Economic Research Institute) expect that the Chinese economy will resume its growth rate before 2015. China's GDP and industrial output will rise. The investment growth of the important customer industry for plant and equipment is expected to be close to 6%.
Japan: Japan's machine tool orders will reach 1.45 trillion yen in 2015
The results of the order data statistics have been taken seriously as an important indicator for judging the direction of the Japanese economy. Members of the Japan Machine Tool Industry Association are obliged to collect machine tool order data for each region, industry and each model and report it monthly. Through the analysis of these data, we can understand the international competitiveness of Japanese machine tools.
In the past ten years, the Japanese machine tool industry has experienced two major events. First, the international financial crisis in 2008 led to a sharp decline in equipment investment worldwide; the second was the appreciation of the yen that continued until around 2012.
In the meantime, the number of machine tool orders in Japan reached a record high of 1.49 trillion yen in 2007. Affected by the 2008 financial crisis, orders in 2009 fell sharply to 411.8 billion yen.
At this time, they repeatedly thought about how the Japanese machine tool will develop in the future. In China, due to the rising cost of the yen, a large number of SMEs are unable to make technological changes, the demand for machine tools has sharply decreased, and the demand in the Americas and Europe is unlikely to increase significantly. Where should I go to find the growth point of Japanese machine tools? Where is the demand in the world increasing? The answer is an emerging economy with rapid economic growth.
At this time, the Chinese government implemented a massive trillion-strong stimulus plan in 2010. Affected by this, the order volume of Japanese machine tools has increased significantly. China is now the world's largest consumer of machine tools. Japanese machine tools have gained the trust of the Chinese market. In 2014, the order amount was restored to 1 trillion 509.4 billion yen, which is the second highest level in the history of Japanese machine tools.
They are very optimistic about 2015, and Japan's machine tool orders will reach 1.45 trillion yen. “This figure is 3% higher than that of 2014, and it is not a big increase†– Mr. Hua Muyi, Chairman of the Japan Machine Tool Industry Association.
China: Machine tool consumer market will bear further downward pressure
China's machine tool industry has ended its rapid growth for about 10 years. Since the second half of 2011, it has entered the downside range, and the industry's main body has not yet gone out of the downside. At the same time, the output structure of China's machine tool industry is undergoing positive changes in many aspects. For example, the numerical control rate of metal processing machine tools has increased rapidly from 64.2% in 2011 to 75.3% in 2014. Another example, in contrast to the continuous decline in output, the total export volume has continued to grow continuously. In 2014, the export growth rate reached 18.8%.
Since the second half of 2011, China's machine tool consumer market has begun to undergo significant changes. The basic characteristics of the change are “significant reduction in total demand and accelerated acceleration of demand structureâ€. In 2014, the amount of consumption was 31.8 billion US dollars. If compared with the peak in 2011, the consumption dropped by 18.6%.
On behalf of the China Machine Tool Industry Association, Chen Huiren finally talked about the basic judgments on the relevant trends in 2015: First, the Chinese machine tool consumer market will bear further downward pressure; second, the basic characteristics and the latest trends of the Chinese machine tool consumer market will become more obvious; It is the positive actions of the government and enterprises that will effectively hedge the downward pressure; Fourth, the structural differentiation of the market structure and enterprise competition will be further revealed.
More than one month after the IMTIC2015 time, the monthly analysis report of the machine tool industry in April was released. This is the result of the comprehensive statistics of the China Machine Tool Industry Association based on the main economic indicators submitted by hundreds of key enterprises from various industries. . Has professional authority.
A close reading of the statistical report, the data from the first line continues to verify the above four basic judgments, the industry operation is still in a downward state, the overall downward trend in the future is obvious, and will not change during the year. If you magnify the coordinates of the analysis into the entire industrial or even national economy system, you will find some important feature changes -
First, it broke the iron law. This is the iron law for decades. The statistics of the national economic operation over the years show that the added value of the machinery industry generally exceeds the industrial added value of the year by 1-2 percentage points, while the industrial added value exceeds the gross domestic product by 1-2 percentage points. That is to say, the annual growth rate of the machinery industry generally exceeds 3 percentage points of the national GDP, and the machine tool industry is no different. This iron law shows that China's domestic economic growth in the past few decades has mainly been driven by basic industries. However, the operational data in the past two years indicates that the situation has obviously changed, indicating that the high-speed development stage of China’s heavy chemical industry has come to an end.
It has had a significant impact on the demand structure of the Chinese machine tool consumer market, especially for the demand for major machine tool equipment.
Second, it has changed its structure. In the past, China’s economic growth was jointly driven by investment, consumption and export “troikaâ€. However, since 2009, due to the multiple factors such as the decline in global market demand, foreign trade exports have bid farewell to the era of high growth for many years, and the Chinese economy has in fact become a model driven by investment and consumption “two carriagesâ€. Since 2011, the contribution rate of consumption to GDP growth has exceeded investment for the fourth consecutive year to become the first driving force for China's economic growth. This structural change has led to a significant differentiation in the machine tool consumer market. Machine tools whose target market is consumer products are significantly better than investment products, such as vertical machining centers for smart phones, and for various consumer goods manufacturing. Metal forming machine tools.
Third, the fire is high-end. Since last year, while China's machine tool consumer market is still in a downturn, imports have achieved positive recovery growth. Relevant data shows that imported machine tools are mainly from Japan, Germany and Taiwan. It goes without saying that the main demand for high-end machine tools is automation, customization and general shifting upgrades. In this round of market opportunities for transformation and upgrading, whether domestic enterprises can seize the opportunity to complete the upgrade to the high-end, there is a meaning of life and death in this battle.
The statistical data is meticulous and precise, and it is tedious and trivial to read, but it is very meaningful to go deep into it. (Yang Qing)
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