Last week (May 16 - May 20) Lun aluminum oversold and rebounded, after opening higher on 1725 Monday, following the previous week's decline, fell to a low of 1707.5 last week. From Tuesday, aluminum prices began to rebound, reaching a high of 1754.5 by Friday. With the resumption of selling, aluminum prices fell rapidly, closing at 1,722 US dollars, up 2 dollars from the previous trading week. Volume was 501,671 lots, an increase of 122,905 lots compared to the previous week. Hand positions were 385,470 lots, a week-on-day decrease of 28,170 lots. Inventory was 557,325 tons, an increase of 4,125 tons per week. Last week, the U.S. economy was not operating satisfactorily. The U.S. Department of the Treasury announced on Monday that the net capital flowing into U.S. assets in March fell from US$84.1 billion in February to US$45.7 billion, a drop that was significantly higher than expected, setting a record since October 2003. Low enough to make up for the $55 billion trade deficit that month. On Thursday, the US Federal Reserve Bank’s May manufacturing index slipped to its lowest level in nearly two years. The 25.3 sharp decline since last month’s expiring report issued by the Institute for Expiry (ECRI) on Friday showed that due to mortgage loan applications and commodities. The price fell, and the US’s lead indicator for the week of May 13 fell to 133.1 from 134.3 last week. The unsatisfactory economic indicators inhibited the rebound of Lun Aluminum last week, resulting in the departure of Allumina traders. With the gradual decline in the price of metals, there has been disagreement among various agencies on the outlook for the metal. Michael Hutchinson, deputy chairman of Sempra Metals, said on Wednesday that at present, commodity prices are obviously too high, and the negative impact of high energy prices on the global economy may be enough to reduce metal demand, prompting the market to supply much more than demand. , and make the metal prices fall back to a more realistic level. Travis Engen, president and chief executive of Alcan, said on Monday that although aluminium prices have fallen by 14%, demand remains strong and continues to exceed supply. In 2005, global aluminum demand will increase by 4.3%, but the supply gap has dropped from 685,000 tons in 2004 to 200,000 tons, and it is difficult for aluminum prices to continue falling. According to the preliminary data of the International Aluminum Association (IAI), the daily average daily output of primary aluminum increased to 63,800 tons in April 2005, which is higher than 3. The current global aluminum production growth rate is rapid, although there is still a supply gap in 2005, but the gap It will obviously decrease, and the trend of weakening aluminum prices has already formed, but the possibility of a sharp decline is very small. From the weekly chart, Lun aluminum finally received a Xiaoyang cross star with long upper and lower shadows after it had closed for three consecutive weeks. It showed that the strength of Al's decline began to slow down. Differences began to increase. Since the Yangxian entity is too small, it is still technically more favorable for short positions. From the daily chart, after last Tuesday's and Wednesday's oversold bounce, it fell again on Thursday and Friday. In particular, last Friday, Lon Ae also formed a long upper shadow line, indicating that Lon Aluminum is currently experiencing more rebound pressure. Big, the room for further rise is very limited. From the technical point of view, the current relative strength index (RSI) still belongs to the weak zone, and the average system has a clear short position. Therefore, it can be preliminarily judged that the current weakness of Alcoa Aluminum has not changed. After the oversold bounce is over, there is still room for further decline. The main support below is in the 1650 area, which is the position before the rapid rise on September 3, 2004. Compared with London Aluminum, last week Shanghai aluminum trend is still relatively strong, the pattern of sideways consolidation has not yet broken. However, according to the data released by the Bureau of Statistics and Customs in April, the current domestic supply situation is not optimistic. According to statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s output of electrolytic aluminum in April was 592,100 tons, an increase of 22.3% year-on-year and an increase of 4.17% from the previous month. According to customs statistics, in April, China imported 65,868 tons of unwrought aluminum and aluminum alloys, an increase of 19,084 tons from March. China's unforged aluminum and aluminum alloy exports 114,731 tons, a decrease of 44,795 compared with March. Both production and imports have increased, and the volume of exports has decreased significantly. This has further caused the pressure on domestic supply to remain high, and the situation of excess supply is still serious. According to Tokyo news, Tokyo's aluminum premium began to decline recently due to the fall in domestic demand in Japan and the weakening of the US premium. Japan is the main exporter of aluminum ingots in China. The decline in aluminum premium water and the weakening of domestic aluminum demand in Japan will all cause difficulties for the export of aluminum ingots in China. Therefore, it is expected that Shanghai Aluminum will still find it difficult to shake off the downturn.
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