The furniture market crossed the winter and gradually warmed up

In the past two years, the furniture market has been called “winter.” As the housing market gradually picks up, most furniture industry players and the media say that the furniture market is picking up and the winter is about to pass. However, whether the cold is still the same, or gradually warming up, everyone holds the word. From the survey and analysis of data, 23.91% of dealers said cold, 31.52% of dealers believe that will pick up, while the remaining 44.57% of dealers said they can not judge.

Warmer:

Support reasons: The situation in the environment is getting better

As early as September 2011, at the second Asia-Pacific Economic Forum, domestic pan-home industry experts and industry leaders discussed the topic of “how wintering in the home industry will be over the next year and a half”. On the forum, industry expert and chairman of Asia-Pacific Media Luo Luo pointed out that the “dark winter” of the pan-home industry will last about a year and a half. The recovery time is likely to be in the spring of 2013.

1. The domestic macroeconomic situation is improving

Since October 2012, the Chinese economy has seen more signs of recovery. The HSBC China Manufacturing PMI data for October and November is very satisfactory. Some economists also raised their forecast for China's economic growth next year.

“If external demand is stable, we believe that it will not be difficult for China to achieve a growth target of 7.5% in 2013. The current market consensus is that,” said Lu Ting, chief economist and certified financial analyst at Merrill Lynch Greater China, a US bank. Yes, China's GDP growth will be between 7.9% and 8.0% in 2013, and our forecast is 8.1%."

The "Economic Outlook" report of the Paris-based OECD on November 27, 2012 pointed out that the increasingly expanding monetary and fiscal policies in emerging market countries have offset the shrinking of external demand. It is expected that China's economic growth rates in the next two years will be different. 8.5% and 8.9%. As the macro economy improves, the furniture industry will also benefit from it.

2. The real estate market begins to warm up

The furniture industry is closely related to the real estate industry. The “cold winter” of the furniture market began with the state’s policy control over the real estate market. However, the purpose of the state's regulation of real estate is to suppress housing prices, rather than suppressing the amount of housing, it is to suppress speculation rather than suppress investment. Now, the effect of regulation and control has become apparent. The rise in house prices has stabilized, some speculators have been “eliminated” from the market, rigid demand has begun to turn into buying behavior, and the real estate market has begun to pick up. This can be seen first from the degree of activity in the land trading market.

In the context of the still limited purchase of commercial housing, the construction of affordable housing has become an important factor in stimulating furniture consumption in the future. Following the completion of the goal of building 7 million sets of affordable housing projects last year, the task for the construction of affordable urban housing projects in 2013 was to build a total of 4.6 million units and 6 million new units. Although the number of new start-ups seems to have decreased, the cumulative value of actual projects under construction and completion volume has been increasing, and the amount of tasks remains large. According to the estimates of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, there are 18 million sets of actual projects under construction in 2012. This includes projects that will be completed in 2009 and will be completed in 2013. The vast majority of the 10 million new projects started in 2011 are still under construction. The project, together with the more than 7 million new projects started last year, has not reduced the number of safe houses under construction in China in the later period.

In addition to the protection of housing, commodity housing sales have also shown signs of gradual recovery in the near future and are expected to be another factor in stimulating furniture consumption. The National Bureau of Statistics released the index of real estate development in November last year was 95.71, an increase of 1.15 points over the previous month. In terms of real estate sales, the country’s total commercial housing sales area was 91.705 million square meters in the first 11 months of 2012, an increase of 2.4% year-on-year. The sales of commercial housing were 5,356,600 million yuan, an increase of 9.1%, and the growth rate was accelerating from the previous month, indicating that the sales of commercial housing had gradually recovered. sign. The rebound in the real estate market will directly drive the furniture market to pick up.

3. Urbanization construction gives birth to new furniture needs

On November 21st, 2012, Li Keqiang, who was elected to the new session of the Politburo Standing Committee at the 18th Plenary Session of the 1st Plenary Session, clearly pointed out at the national comprehensive reform pilot work conference that reform is China’s largest dividend. As far as the specific form of reform is concerned, Li Keqiang elaborated on three dimensions and specific paths. One of them is to reform the urbanization drive.

On November 28, Li Keqiang met with the President of the World Bank, said that China has entered the ranks of middle-income countries, but the development is still very unbalanced, especially the wide gap between urban and rural areas, the gap is the potential, China's largest in the next few decades The potential for development lies in urbanization. This again demonstrated his determination to advance China’s urbanization. Li Keqiang also disclosed that relevant departments of the State Council are studying and formulating plans for the development of urbanization to guide the construction of urbanization across the country. In the process of advancing urbanization, there will inevitably be new demands for housing and furniture products, which is absolutely good news for the furniture industry.

4. Family Concept of Modern Chinese Drives Furniture Consumption

Most Chinese families now have three generations of direct family structures. With an increasingly independent and modern mindset, when a person becomes a family member, he hopes to get rid of his father’s dependence and owns his own home. When his children grow up, they also want to have their own living space. While their fathers are old, they have physical bodies. Still healthy, like the freedom of life, "three generations of people living together" is just a reunion during the festival, is the emotional needs.

Therefore, for a family with three generations of immediate structure, it is necessary to have three sets of housing is the ideal state. Now that the house is too expensive to buy, it does not mean that the rigid demand has decreased. As the real estate market enters a rational state, people with certain economic strength will purchase homes, which in turn will drive furniture consumption.

5. Market shuffling promotes healthy development of the industry

Since the beginning of 2012, the furniture market has experienced a phenomenon of “reshuffle”. A group of companies that are not strong enough and whose operations are not standardized have been eliminated. The companies that are left behind by Dalang are all powerful and standardized enterprises.

The development of the market will be healthier and more rational, and consumer confidence will also increase. In addition, after the market “shuffled”, the number of people splitting up “cakes” has decreased, and each company’s share of “cakes” has increased, which helps those excellent companies to become bigger and stronger.

6. Demand for better support exports will continue

China is the world’s largest exporter of furniture. Although the current European market is still not improving, demand in the emerging markets such as the Middle East and Southeast Asia has increased. Coupled with the gradual recovery of the US real estate market, the furniture export situation has begun to improve.

China Customs statistics show that in the first 10 months of last year, the total exports of furniture and parts reached 39.281 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 31.9% year-on-year, of which the export value for the month of October was 4.283 billion U.S. dollars; the first 11 months of exports of furniture and its parts. A total of 43.16 billion US dollars, an increase of 27.5%, of which exports in the month of November was 3.781 billion US dollars, a decline in the chain. Huatai Securities believes that by the end of last year, the decline in the growth rate of furniture exports has not been unexpected, but the US housing transaction continues to improve, and a good trend in the recovery of furniture exports is also expected this year.