2013 shipbuilding industry trend speculation

2012 can be said to be the most difficult year for the shipbuilding industry. In this year, the three major indicators of the shipbuilding industry fell across the board, and the shipbuilding industry has spread. According to data released by the China National Shipbuilding Industry Association, from January to November, the national shipbuilding completion was 50.55 million DWT, down 18.2% year-on-year; the new ship orders were 17.04 million DWT, down 49.4% year-on-year; at the end of November, the hand-held ship orders were 113.35 million D. Tonne, down 30.3% year-on-year, down 24.4% from the end of 2011. From these data, the overall decline in the shipbuilding industry in 2012 is inevitable. Looking forward to 2013, the industry is expected to recover slowly, stimulated by a series of favorable policies. Let's take a look at some of the positive factors that affect the operation of the ship industry in 2013:

A series of industrial policies are beneficial to promote the development of the shipbuilding industry

In 2010, China's shipbuilding completion volume was the highest in the world. The shipbuilding industry's sales revenue exceeded 600 billion yuan, and the ship's export volume exceeded 40 billion US dollars. The "12th Five-Year Plan" China's shipbuilding industry will enter a stage of becoming stronger and stronger. According to the goal of the “12th Five-Year Development Plan for the Shipbuilding Industry”, by 2015, China’s shipbuilding industry’s sales revenue will reach 1.2 trillion yuan, and the total export value will exceed US$80 billion. The industry’s average annual compound growth rate during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period will be 14.87%. The average annual growth rate is 82.06%.

In March 2012, in order to implement the Outline of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Industrial Transformation and Upgrading Plan (2011-2015), we will further promote the sustainable and healthy development of China's marine engineering equipment manufacturing industry. The Ministry of Information Technology and the Ministry of Development and Reform, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission and the State Oceanic Administration have formulated the Medium and Long-Term Development Plan for the Marine Engineering Equipment Manufacturing Industry.

In May 2012, in order to implement the "12th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Shipbuilding Industry" and the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan for the Development of Standardization", to promote the technological progress of China's shipbuilding industry, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Standards Committee organized The Shipbuilding Industry Standard System (2012 Edition) is hereby released.

On July 1, 2012, the International Association of Classification Societies (IACS) published on its website a general rule for the construction of a harmonized version of a double-hulled oil tanker and bulk carrier for the industry from July 1 to December 31, 2012. Review during the feedback period.

In order to help the shipbuilding industry and the shipping industry “get through” and respond to these new requirements and new standards in advance, on July 10, 2012, China Classification Society officially issued the “Green Ship Code”. This is the world's first green ship specification for energy conservation, environmental protection and working environment, and will officially take effect on October 1 this year.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Guide to Marine Engineering Equipment Research Projects (2012)" on August 14, 2012. The Guide focuses on the four major links of exploration, mining, storage, transportation and service of marine resources. It selects some key products and key technologies for urgently needed marine engineering equipment, and has formed 18 key directions for the development of marine engineering equipment in 2012. The relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology said that the 2012 Guide for High-Tech Ship Scientific Research Program focuses on the market demand and development trend of ship technology in terms of energy conservation, environmental protection, safety and efficiency.

From the national onshore ship type standardization summary promotion work meeting held on October 12, 2012, it was learned that China will establish a standard ship type index system, phase out some ship types within a time limit, and strive to modernize the inland river transport fleet by 2020. Promoting the standardization of inland watercraft is an important means to adjust the structure of inland waterway transportation and transform the development mode. Xu Zuyuan, deputy director of the Ministry of Transport, said that after ten years of development of inland river type standards, the two major river systems, the Beijing-Hangzhou Grand Canal and the Yangtze River, have been covered, and the surface of the inland navigation has undergone tremendous changes.

On October 16, 2012, Russia drafted a 2030 shipbuilding development plan, which will mainly involve the development of military-related enterprises, marine continental shelf projects and the construction of “ice” class ships. The Russian 2030 Shipbuilding Development Plan will be prepared by the Ministry of Trade and Industry. The total amount of funds allocated will reach 1.3 trillion rubles (about 41.8 billion US dollars). According to the deputy director of the Shipbuilding Bureau of the Ministry of Trade and Industry, Russian shipowners have awarded orders to foreign shipbuilding companies for $1 billion a year. In the last 10 years, Russian shipyards have only received 6% of all shipowners' orders. But given the technical capabilities of Russian shipbuilding companies, this figure should be 30%.

In November 2012, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology officially issued the “Guiding Opinions on Further Promoting the Work of Establishing a Modern Shipbuilding Model”, requiring that in the new situation, the shipbuilding industry and enterprises must use modeling as a breakthrough in transforming the development mode of the industry and promote construction. The mold work entered a new stage of comprehensive improvement in depth, breadth and precision, and proposed the goal of modeling work in 2015: the whole industry basically established an efficient shipbuilding system, and the main shipbuilding technical indicators are close to the international advanced level; The average annual increase is 15%, the shipbuilding efficiency of the backbone shipbuilding enterprises reaches 15 working hours/corrected gross tons, the typical ship construction period has reached the world advanced level, and the average steel utilization rate of the backbone shipbuilding enterprises has reached more than 90%, and the industrial added value energy consumption of enterprises above designated size Compared with the end of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan”, it will drop by 20%; the penetration rate of shipbuilding management in large and medium-sized enterprises will reach 80%, and the penetration rate of digital design tools will reach 85%.

On November 29, 2012, the China Development Bank Ship Finance Center was established in Dalian. Chen Kai, Chairman of CDB, Su Bo, Vice Minister of Industry and Information Technology, Gao Hongfeng, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Transport, Tang Jun, Secretary of Dalian Municipal Party Committee, Li Wancai, Mayor of Dalian, Li Jiping, Vice President of CDB, and Chen Min, Secretary of the Board of Directors The inaugural ceremony. China Ocean Shipping Group, China Shipping Group, Sinotrans Changhang Group, China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation and other key shipping, shipbuilding enterprises and domestic and foreign related institutions attended the ceremony. Since 2008, the deep-seated impact of the international financial crisis has continued to emerge, the international shipping market has continued to slump, the operating efficiency of China's shipping companies has declined, and the number of new shipbuilding orders for shipbuilding companies has decreased significantly. The problem of “difficulty in delivery and difficulty in receiving orders” has become increasingly serious. As an important measure to further strengthen the development of China's shipping industry and shipbuilding industry under the new situation of China Development Bank, CDB Ship Financing Center is the first business department of the Bank to set up to support a certain industry, which will be beneficial to the bank. Medium and long-term investment and financing means, serving the national development strategy, and further enhancing the ability of China's shipping industry and shipbuilding industry to cope with the international financial crisis.

The construction of marine economic demonstration zones in various regions will also bring further opportunities to the shipbuilding industry. The "Development Plan for the Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone", the "Zhejiang Marine Economic Development Demonstration Zone Plan" and the "Guangdong Marine Economic Comprehensive Experimental Zone Development Plan" will greatly promote the development of China's marine economy and create new for the development of the shipbuilding industry. Opportunity.

In December 2012, in order to help Chinese shipping companies get rid of the difficulties brought about by the international financial crisis, many ministries and commissions are studying and formulating the shipbuilding industry action plan for the next three years (2013-2015), and intend to give policy inclinations to key shipping companies. Provide necessary support in the areas of finance, taxation and finance. At present, many ministries are conducting research on related enterprises in China's shipbuilding industry.

According to industry insiders, the content of the action plan may include encouraging greater financial support for the shipbuilding industry, increasing the credit supply for ship exporters, and vigorously developing key products such as special vessels such as offshore engineering equipment and chemical tankers, low-speed diesel engines, and marine diesel engine crankshafts. To comprehensively enhance market competitiveness; strengthen restrictions on shipbuilding industry access, encourage mergers and acquisitions or group cooperation, accelerate the integration of shipbuilding infrastructure resources, optimize the spatial layout of the shipbuilding industry; actively develop the ship supporting industry and ship matching market, and enhance the supporting capacity of ships, and extend Shipbuilding industry chain; encourage shipbuilding enterprises to establish modern shipbuilding mode, reform ship product design, production and operation methods, shorten shipbuilding cycle, improve safety production and clean production level; plan long-term development, reserve advanced manufacturing capacity of shipbuilding industry. This will have certain positive effects on the recovery of the medium and long-term domestic shipbuilding industry.

In view of the fact that the recovery of the shipbuilding industry still takes a certain period of time, these favorable policies are expected to continue in 2013, and will continue to produce certain positive effects on the domestic shipbuilding industry.

Domestic shipbuilding industry demand continues to improve

Since the reform and opening up, China's shipbuilding industry has been striving to open up the international market and successfully built itself into an export-oriented industry. However, this has also led to a high degree of external dependence on the shipbuilding industry, which has been deeply affected by the international economic downturn in recent years. "The West does not brighten the East", in contrast to the domestic market, China's economic and social development fundamentals have been improving for a long time, and the domestic market has great potential: in recent years, the official ship market including sea surveillance vessels, fishery vessels, border defense vessels, law enforcement vessels, etc. Smooth and rapid growth; in order to build a strong fishing industry, the Ministry of Agriculture and other relevant departments encourage shipbuilding enterprises to intensify efforts to develop high-value-added, high-efficiency, energy-saving and environmentally friendly ocean-going fishing vessels; with the rapid development of the national economy, the curtain of China's cruise economy has slowly opened. The opportunity for the luxury cruise ship market has begun to show. In addition, energy transportation demand has driven the market demand of VLCC and LNG carriers; as China's requirements for ship safety and environmental protection continue to improve, the Ministry of Transport and other relevant departments and some local governments have formulated favorable policies to encourage rapid development with LNG as Inland vessels and fishing boats for fuel. These market highlights will provide many opportunities for Chinese shipbuilding companies to develop.

Offshore equipment provides a new market for the industry

Unlike the new shipbuilding market, the offshore market is relatively less negatively affected by the world economy and has a bright future driven by global energy demand. In this respect, the old rival South Korean shipbuilding industry has given Chinese companies an unforgettable lesson: Although the world's number one shipbuilding throne was taken away by China in 2010, the Korean shipbuilding industry immediately reversed with a large number of offshore equipment orders. Regain the first. In the past two years, offshore equipment has become the flagship product of several major shipping companies in Korea. It is conceivable that it is not a day's work for Korean shipping companies to make a big impact in the offshore market. It has been through careful market analysis and a lot of technical research and development before they can make a lot of money. Therefore, in the offshore industry, the Chinese shipbuilding industry still needs to catch up. On the other hand, in order to realize China's goal of developing a marine economy and building a maritime power, China's mainstream shipping enterprises should advance into deep blue as soon as possible, speed up the pace of product structure adjustment, and high-tech and high added value in icebreakers, drilling ships, and seabed pipelaying vessels. The product has made achievements, which will lay the foundation for the future development of the international market.

Moreover, during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the state will increase its support for the development of key industries, marine economy, new energy, new materials, construction machinery, Internet of Things, energy conservation and environmental protection, rail transit equipment, intelligent manufacturing equipment, and new power batteries. Industries such as materials will provide new market opportunities for shipbuilding companies to diversify their operations.

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